Archive for the ‘Housing Analysis’ Category
Wednesday, May 16th, 2012
 Homebuilder Confidence is on the rise once again.
After a brief dip in April, the National Association of Homebuilders reports that the Housing Market Index rose 5 points in May to 29. The increase marks the sharpest climb in homebuilder confidence on a month-to-month basis in 10 years, and raises the index to a 5-year high.
The Housing Market Index is scored from 1-100. Readings above 50 indicate favorable conditions in the single-family new home market overall. Readings below 50 indicate poor conditions.
The HMI has not been above 50 since April 2006.
The Housing Market Index itself is a composite reading as opposed to a straight-up homebuilder survey. The published HMI figure is a compilation of the results of three specific questionnaires sent to NAHB members monthly.
The survey questions are basic :
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes today?
- How are market conditions for the sale of new homes in 6 months?
This is a preview of Homebuilder Confidence Moves To 5-Year High . Read the full post »
Tags: HMI, Homebuilder Confidence, NAHB
Posted in Housing Analysis | No Comments »
Tuesday, April 24th, 2012
 Tuesday, the government released its March 2012 New Residential Construction report. The report is made up of three sections, each related to a phase of the “new home” market. The report’s first part is Building Permits; the second is Housing Starts; the third is Housing Completions.
Of the three sections, it’s Housing Starts that gets the most attention from the press — mostly because, of the triad, it’s the simplest for a layperson to understand. However, the manner in which Housing Starts data is reported can be misleading.
Today’s newspapers offer up an excellent example.
According to the Census Bureau, total Housing Starts fell by 6% in March as compared to the month prior. 654,000 units were started on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis. For Housing Starts, it’s the lowest reading in 5 months, a statistic suggesting that the housing market may have lost some momentum. Much of the press covered the story from a “housing is slowing” angle.
This is a preview of Single-Family Housing Starts Slip 0.2% In March . Read the full post »
Tags: Building Permits, Census Bureau, Housing Starts
Posted in Housing Analysis, Statistics, The Economy | No Comments »
Thursday, April 19th, 2012
 The housing market took a step back in February, but remains near post-recession highs.
According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, February’s Pending Home Sale Index slipped .5% from the month prior, to 96.5. The Pending Home Sales Index is a monthly report which measures the number of homes under contract to sell, but not yet sold, nationwide.
The index is benchmarked to a value of 100, the average level of home contract activity in 2001, the first year that pending home sales data was analyzed. It also happened to be a year of historically-high levels of home contract activity. Therefore, a Pending Home Sales Index reading of 100 suggests a strong housing market nationwide. The index has read north of 90 since October 2011.
On a regional basis, February’s Pending Home Sales Index varied :
- Northeast Region: -0.5 percent from January 2012
- Midwest Region : +5.7 percent from January 2012
- South Region : -3.3 percent from January 2012
This is a preview of Pending Home Sales Index Remains Strong Into Spring . Read the full post »
Tags: Home Prices, NAR, Pending Home Sales Index
Posted in Buying A Home, Housing Analysis, Residential Real Estate, The Economy | No Comments »
Saturday, April 7th, 2012
 The new construction housing market appears primed for growth this season.
According to the Census Bureau, the number of single-family building permits issued in February rose to 472,000 on a seasonally-adjusted, annual basis, marking this the highest building permit tally since April 2010 — the last month of that year’s federal home buyer tax credit program.
Building permits are a pre-cursor to new home construction. In 2011, from the date of permit-issuance to the date of “ground-breaking”, an average of 27 calendar days passed. February’s data, therefore, is a signal that the market for newly-built homes should be strong this year, an idea supported by the most recent homebuilder confidence survey.
As buyer foot traffic soars, homebuilders expect to make more sales in the next 6 months than at any time since the housing market’s collapse. Builder confidence is at a 5-year high.
This is a preview of Building Permits On The Rise . Read the full post »
Tags: Building Permits, Census Bureau, Colorado Real Estate, energy efficient, Existing Home Sales, Housing Starts, real estate pricing
Posted in Buying A Home, Housing Analysis, Residential Real Estate, Statistics | No Comments »
Monday, April 2nd, 2012
After a series of months during which foreclosure volume was low, total filings have started to rise again, says RealtyTrac. In February of 2012, 21 states posted a year-over-year increase in monthly foreclosure filings, according to the national foreclosure-tracking firm. This is nearly twice as many states as compared to December 2011, marking the highest monthly reading since November 2010.
A “foreclosure filing” is defined to include any one of the following foreclosure-related events : (1) The serving of a default notice, (2) A scheduled home auction, or (3) A bank repossession. Nationally, the number of foreclosure filings fell 2 percent from January. However, it’s a trend that may reverse. Foreclosure volume is expected to rise over the next few months.
This is because the $25 billion mortgage servicer settlement provides a framework for servicers to execute necessary foreclosures, from notice-to-auction. Some analysts believe that foreclosure filings were artificially depressed in 2011 because of the absence of such guidance.
This is a preview of Foreclosure Volume Slated To Rise This Spring . Read the full post »
Tags: Buy home, Colorado Real Estate, Distressed Homes, foreclosure, Foreclosures, home buyer, RealtyTrac
Posted in Buying A Home, Foreclosure, Housing Analysis, Residential Real Estate, Short Sale | No Comments »
Friday, March 30th, 2012
After a brief run-up two weeks ago, mortgage rates are back below 4 percent. It’s good news for home buyers and mortgage rate shoppers because, with lower mortgage rates, we can lower the amount of mortgage payments. According to Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the national average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate fell to 3.99 percent this week from last week’s 4.08 percent.
Last week had marked the first time since December 2011 that the benchmark rate crossed north of 4 percent — a span of 16 weeks. And, it wasn’t just rates that got cheaper this week — closing costs dropped too. Freddie Mac’s survey showed that the average number of discount points to accompany a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell one-tenth of a percent this week to 0.7, where one discount point is equal to one percent of your loan size.
This is a preview of Mortgage Rates Fall Back Below 4% . Read the full post »
Tags: 30 year fixed loan, Buy home, Discount Points, Freddie Mac, Home Affordability, home buyer
Posted in Buying A Home, Housing Analysis, Mortgage Rates, Mortgages, Residential Real Estate, Statistics | No Comments »
Monday, March 5th, 2012
 Foreclosure activity continues to concentrate over just a few states.
According to foreclosure-tracker RealtyTrac, November’s foreclosure filings fell 3 percent as compared to October, and 14 percent from November 2010. “Foreclosure filing” is a catch-all term for the various “action steps” throughout the foreclosure process. The grouping comprises default notices, scheduled home auctions, and bank repossessions.
As in most months, though, foreclosure activity remains concentrated by state. More than half of last month’s bank repossessions can be traced to just 6 states.
- California : 14.8% of all bank repossessions
- Florida : 12.7% of all bank repossessions
- Texas : 7.0% of all bank repossessions
- Georgia : 6.9% of all bank repossessions
- Arizona : 6.7% of all bank repossessions
- Michigan : 6.3% of all bank repossessions
This is a preview of Bank Repossessions Drop To A 44-month Low . Read the full post »
Tags: Foreclosures, RealtyTrac, REO
Posted in Housing Analysis | No Comments »
Saturday, March 3rd, 2012
 The housing market appears headed for a strong spring season.
After a brief setback in December, the Pending Home Sales Index resumed its climb in January, posting a 2 percent gain over the month prior. The data puts pressure on home buyers. This is because a “pending home” is a home that’s under contract to sell, but has not yet sold. It’s tracked by the National Association of REALTORS® and, among all housing statistics, it’s the only one that’s “forward-looking”.
The Pending Home Sales Index is important to home buyers throughout Colorado because 80% of homes under contract to sell close within 60 days of contract. In this way, the Pending Home Sales Index forecasts the housing market 1-2 months into the future. This is very different from how NAR’s Existing Home Sales report works; or, how the Census Bureau’s New Home Sales report works. These two metrics tell us what’s already happened in housing. By contrast, the Pending Home Sales Index tells us what’s coming next.
This is a preview of Pending Home Sales Rise To 22-Month High . Read the full post »
Tags: Existing Home Sales, NAR, Pending Home Sales
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Saturday, February 18th, 2012
 Low home prices and mortgage rates have combined to push home affordability to record levels nationwide. Home buyers are taking advantage.
The Pending Home Sales Index rose 7 percent in November to rise to its highest level since April 2010, the last month of last year’s home buyer tax credit program. The Pending Home Sales Index is published monthly by the National Association of REALTORS®. It measures homes under contract nationwide, but not yet “sold”. In this way, the Pending Home Sales Index is different from other housing market indicators. It’s a “forward-looking” figure; a predictor of future home sales. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, more than 80% of homes under contract close within 60 days.
By contrast, housing data such as the Existing Home Sales report and the New Home Sales report “look back”. November marks the second straight month of Pending Home Sales Index improvement. The housing market metric made big gains of 10 percent in October 2011, as well.
This is a preview of Pending Home Sales Index Rises Back Above 100 . Read the full post »
Tags: Existing Home Sales, National Association of REALTORS, Pending Home Sales Index
Posted in Housing Analysis | No Comments »
Wednesday, February 8th, 2012
New Home Sales slowed into the New Year but the market for newly-built homes remains strong. For home buyers in Colorado and nationwide, December’s New Home Sales report is yet one more signal that the housing market recovery may be underway.
According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold in December 2011 slipped 2 percent to 307,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis nationwide. A “new home” is a home that is considered new construction; a home for which the buyer will be the first owner and tenant.
As compared to December 2010, last months’ sales volume fell seven percent. It’s a statistic that suggests housing market weakness. However, in looking at a different component of the New Home Sales report — the supply of homes for sale — we’re forced to reconsider. At the current pace of sales, every new home for sale nationwide would be “sold” in a matter of 6.1 months.
This is a preview of Supply Of New Homes At 6.1 Months Nationwide . Read the full post »
Tags: Buy home, Census Bureau, home buyer, New Home Sales, New Home Supply
Posted in Buying A Home, Housing Analysis | No Comments »
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